Goodbye, Wolf Warrior: charting China's transition to a more accommodating diplomacy

In recent years the realm of international diplomacy has observed a notable shift in the approach adopted by one of the world's foremost powers—namely China. Traditionally characterized by a cautious and measured diplomacy, Chinese foreign policy underwent a stark transformation with the emergence of what has been termed ‘wolf warrior’ diplomacy. This aggressive diplomatic style, named after the popular Chinese action film Wolf Warrior, which glorifies the prowess and moral clarity of a Chinese special forces operative fighting foreign mercenaries, signifies a similar assertiveness in China's international engagements. The diplomats of this era, like their cinematic counterparts, are unapologetically nationalistic and often confrontational, marking a significant departure from the low-profile approach advised by Deng Xiaoping, who led China between 1978 and 1989.1

Wolf warrior diplomacy is best understood through its origins and characteristics. It first surfaced into prominence in the mid-2010s, gaining traction around 2017 as Chinese diplomats began to respond more aggressively to criticism of China's policies, particularly regarding human rights and territorial disputes, and later reinforced by criticism of its handling of the COVID–19 pandemic.2 The approach was perceived to contrast starkly with the cooperative and controversy-avoiding diplomatic practice of Deng Xiaoping and of his successors, Jiang Zemin (1993–2002) and Hu Jintao (2002–2012). Proponents of wolf warrior diplomacy counter aggressively any criticism of the Chinese government, the Communist Party of China (CPC), or their policies, using various platforms including social media, interviews, press conferences and official statements. Examples include strident responses to western governments and media, and the use of social media platforms by diplomats to directly challenge international narratives perceived as hostile to China.

However, a discernible transition in this approach has been unfolding. Recent articulations of Chinese foreign policy suggest a pivot towards a more cooperative and peaceful diplomacy, emphasizing ‘win-win’ cooperation and a global partnership network.3 This shift is pivotal, driven by multifaceted factors ranging from economic necessities to geopolitical strategies and concerns about global image. The overarching goal appears to be creating a conducive international environment for China's national development and modernization aspirations.

In what amounts to a striking pivot in its diplomatic posture, China has significantly muted its once vocal ‘wolf warrior’ diplomats, signalling a perplexing shift towards a more conciliatory approach. Notably, Zhao Lijian, who as deputy director of the information department at the ministry of foreign affairs was a prominent figure in this assertive cadre, was renowned for his bold statements—such as the suggestion that the US military might have brought COVID–19 to the Chinese city of Wuhan4—and was quietly reassigned in early 2023 to a less conspicuous role within the ministry.5 This move came after a pattern had developed by which China's diplomats, including Zhao, had free rein to employ a combative style that resonated widely on social platforms, amassing substantial followings. However, incidents like controversial remarks by Beijing's ambassador to France, which sparked a diplomatic backlash, prompted a swift response from the Chinese government, distancing itself from such aggressive rhetoric.6 This sudden and puzzling transition from aggressive diplomacy to a more moderated tone raises questions about the underlying strategic recalibrations within China's foreign policy framework.7

The implications of this diplomatic shift are significant. It has the potential to influence global trade and economic policies, affecting various economies. Additionally, it plays a role in shaping global security dynamics, especially in regions where China has strategic interests. Furthermore, China's approach can serve as a model for other emerging powers, influencing their engagement on the international stage and contributing to a more balanced global order. Moreover, the shift in China's diplomacy has direct implications for how global challenges are addressed. A cooperative China could lead to more effective responses to global crises, such as health pandemics, climate change, and economic downturns. For policy-makers, understanding the transition of China's diplomatic strategy is crucial for crafting informed responses and engagements that align with their national interests while fostering global stability.

This policy paper examines the transition in Chinese foreign policy from wolf warrior diplomacy to a more cooperative approach, and goes on to propose that this is fundamentally driven by economic, geopolitical and domestic political considerations. Economically, this transition supports China's integration into the global market by reducing trade frictions and fostering a stable international environment conducive to investment, especially as the country's economy is in dire need of increased economic cooperation. Geopolitically, the shift aligns with China's strategic interests to build alliances and manage global challenges through multilateral cooperation, enhancing relations via programmes like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Additionally, the need to maintain government legitimacy domestically also played an important role in China's diplomatic shift. The policy paper will conclude with a section of policy recommendations that suggest ways in which both China and the international community could build on this diplomatic shift to foster a more stable, prosperous and cooperative international order. By aligning strategies and policies to this new diplomatic reality, nations can enhance mutual understanding, promote shared global interests and mitigate the risks of conflict.

History and transition of Chinese foreign diplomacy

This policy paper categorizes the evolution of Chinese foreign diplomacy into three distinct phases, beginning with what I shall term the ‘peaceful diplomacy era’. This period, spanning the 1990s and early 2000s, was defined by China's strategic emphasis on peaceful development, cooperation and non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries. This approach was encapsulated in the ‘peaceful rise’ narrative, aimed at reassuring the global community that China's growing economic and military capabilities would not pose a threat to global stability.8 The second phase is the ‘wolf warrior era’ and the third—and most recent—is termed ‘the accommodating diplomacy era’.

The peaceful diplomacy era

The foundational principles of China's diplomatic approach during this era included strict adherence to non-interference, a legacy of the ‘Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence’ (mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity; mutual non-aggression; mutual non-interference in each other's internal affairs; equality and mutual benefit; and peaceful coexistence) introduced by China's premier Zhou Enlai in 1953, which facilitated the formation of diverse international partnerships and maintained China's policy independence. Respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity was paramount, coupled with the pursuit of mutually beneficial cooperation in trade, investment and development assistance. The overarching narrative of ‘peaceful development’ was promoted to position China's economic growth as a non-threatening force in global politics.9

Objectives during this period were clear: ensuring a stable external environment conducive to China's internal economic development and modernization; securing access to global markets and resources through peaceful diplomacy; and fostering a positive international image to mitigate concerns over its rising power. Practical implementations of this diplomatic strategy included China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001, demonstrating its commitment to global economic norms and cooperative international relations. Additionally, China's ‘good neighbour policy’ emphasized peaceful coexistence and economic collaboration, particularly highlighted by initiatives like the ASEAN10–China Free Trade Area and the promotion of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation as a regional security mechanism.11

Despite these publicly espoused principles, critiques have suggested a more complex portrait of China's diplomacy, hinting at discrepancies between declared peaceful intentions and practical actions.12 Nonetheless, this phase was instrumental in facilitating China's integration into the global economy, establishing stable external conditions for its growth and enhancing its global stature, thereby setting the stage for the subsequent shifts in its diplomatic conduct.

This peaceful and cooperative approach laid the groundwork for what would evolve into a more assertive and sometimes confrontational style, which became known as wolf warrior diplomacy.

The era of wolf warrior diplomacy

The evolution from China's peaceful and low-profile diplomatic strategies to the more assertive and nationalistic ‘wolf warrior’ diplomacy marks a significant shift in the history of Chinese foreign relations. This transition reflects the changing dynamics within China's domestic political landscape and its evolving international aspirations, which coincide with the power transition theory in International Relations. The power transition theory suggests that as nations rise in power, they become more assertive in challenging the existing global order to reflect their interests and values.13

The ideological roots of wolf warrior diplomacy can be traced back to the early days of the People's Republic of China, marked during the Cold War by non-alignment policies and Zhou's Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence. However, following the Cultural Revolution, Deng Xiaoping's ascendancy in the late 1970s marked a pivotal shift, with his philosophy of ‘hide your capacities, bide your time’, which prioritized economic development while maintaining a low diplomatic profile.14 Despite the emphasis on peaceful development during the 1990s and early 2000s, which assured the global community of China's benign rise, the narrative began to shift as China's economic and military capabilities grew. Under the leadership of Xi Jinping, who came to power in 2012, China's foreign policy has taken a more nationalistic and assertive turn, reflecting his vision of the ‘Chinese Dream’ and the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.15 This period witnessed a definitive departure from the Deng-era low-profile strategy to a more confident assertion of China's role and rights on the world stage.16

The primary distinction of this era may not lie in a wholesale transformation of diplomatic rhetoric at the top, but rather in the context created by the COVID–19 pandemic. Travel restrictions and reduced face-to-face interactions meant that Chinese leaders and their international counterparts engaged less frequently in direct, personal diplomacy. This dearth of physical meetings likely intensified the perceived assertiveness of China's diplomatic stance, as interactions became more reliant on public statements and media exchanges. Under wolf warrior diplomacy, the principle of non-interference was increasingly accompanied by assertive measures to protect China's sovereignty and national dignity. This included more aggressive responses to international criticism and a robust defence of China's interests in territorial disputes and international forums. China's Five Principles of Peaceful Co-Existence shifted towards a more transactional approach in diplomacy, where China began to leverage its economic might to influence other nations and secure its strategic interests.17

The primary objectives of this diplomatic phase included asserting China's sovereignty, enhancing its global stature and protecting its developmental interests. This was evident in China's more confrontational stance in the South China Sea, the adoption of the BRI, which was aimed at expanding Chinese influence through infrastructure investments, and its heightened engagement in global governance, often challenging western dominance in international institutions. The transition from China's peaceful diplomacy to the assertive ‘wolf warrior’ style can be understood across three dimensions: diplomatic rhetoric and communication; territorial disputes and military assertiveness; and economic coercion.18 It is also critical to note that this aggressive diplomatic language did not develop in isolation, but was significantly influenced by external factors, particularly the behaviour of the members of the administration of Donald Trump in the United States (2017–2021) and similar actions by other nations. The Trump administration's trade wars with China, characterized by high tariffs and confrontational rhetoric, played a pivotal role in heightening tensions. Additionally, the onset of the COVID–19 pandemic in 2020 saw China adopt a highly defensive stance, responding to global criticisms regarding the pandemic's origins and handling. During this period, western rhetoric towards China was particularly antagonistic, with notable instances such as when an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal referred to China as the ‘sick man of Asia’.19 The shift to wolf warrior diplomacy included more aggressive public statements and social media engagement by diplomats, a proactive stance in territorial conflicts such as the overlapping claims in the South China Sea and the India–China border dispute, and the use of economic tools like trade restrictions to influence other nations' policies.

Just as the phase of wolf warrior diplomacy demonstrated China's ability to defend its interests assertively and confidently on the global stage, it also highlighted the limitations and counterproductive outcomes associated with a purely confrontational international approach. Rising international tensions, trade conflicts and diplomatic isolation served as critical junctures, compelling Chinese policy-makers to reassess and recalibrate their diplomatic strategy. This reflection led to the emergence of the third phase, which marked a significant pivot towards fostering more sustainable and mutually beneficial international relationships.

The era of accommodating diplomacy

In response to evolving global dynamics and the need to mend fences after the aggression of the ‘wolf warrior’ diplomatic era, China has adopted what can be termed as ‘accommodating diplomacy’. This approach signifies a strategic recalibration towards a more cooperative and conciliatory foreign policy, where China seeks to demonstrate its willingness to adjust and align with the broader interests of the international community.

Accommodating diplomacy is characterized by Chinese efforts to engage more constructively with global powers and regional partners. This involves a significant push towards fostering diplomatic relations that are based on mutual respect, shared benefits and collective problem-solving. Key to this strategy is China's participation in international coalitions, its active involvement in addressing global challenges like climate change and health security, and its renewed commitment to multilateral organizations. Economically, China aims to leverage its substantial market and manufacturing base with a renewed emphasis on fostering trade relationships that have the potential to be mutually beneficial and promote shared growth and development.20 This phase also emphasizes enhancing cultural exchanges and educational ties, which serve not only to soften China's global image but also to deepen interpersonal and intercultural relations that could pave the way for smoother political and economic interactions. While China still protects its sovereign interests and maintains a firm stance on core issues like Taiwan and the South China Sea, accommodating diplomacy indicates the potential for a greater openness to dialogue and compromise. The approach marks a departure from the previous zero-sum perspectives, aiming instead to cultivate an image of a responsible major power that contributes positively to global peace and stability. While there are encouraging signs of a more open policy towards the West, it is essential to recognize that this openness is emerging from a relatively low point. Relations between China and western countries had reached their lowest level in four decades by the time the COVID–19 pandemic began.21 Thus, while the current diplomatic gestures are promising, they should be understood within the context of the previously strained relationships.

This new diplomatic phase underscores a China that is keen on portraying itself as an integral and constructive player in the international community, actively seeking to dispel any notions of a disruptive rise and instead highlighting its readiness to contribute to worldwide prosperity and stability. While this policy paper categorizes the evolution of Chinese foreign diplomacy into distinct phases—namely the peaceful diplomacy era, wolf warrior diplomacy, and the current accommodating diplomacy—it is essential to recognize the inherent uncertainties in these categorizations. As long as Xi Jinping remains in power, and therefore for the foreseeable future, it is difficult to determine whether the current cooperative approach represents a genuine strategic shift, a temporary phase or merely a respite in a broader trend of foreign policy assertiveness. The fluid nature of international relations under Xi's leadership necessitates a cautious interpretation of these diplomatic trends, acknowledging that China's foreign policy could shift back towards greater assertiveness in response to evolving domestic and global dynamics.

It is also essential to recognize that Chinese diplomatic rhetoric is deeply intertwined with its internal discourse, which has fluctuated between periods of intensity and moderation. For instance, the confrontational language of the Cultural Revolution stands in stark contrast to the more subdued communication of the Hu Jintao era. This variability underscores the richness and adaptability of Chinese diplomatic language. It is a dynamic and evolving tool, reflecting changes in China's domestic and international contexts. In discussing the variations in and intensity of Chinese diplomatic rhetoric, it is essential to consider how emotional expressions are strategically employed in Chinese foreign policy to achieve specific diplomatic objectives. Research indicates that China's use of emotional language serves both to signal resolve and to mobilize domestic support. This perspective helps to contextualize the shifts between aggressive and moderate tones in Chinese diplomacy, illustrating how these shifts are not merely reactive but are part of a calculated strategy that leverages emotional discourse.22

Drivers behind the shift to accommodating diplomacy

As China navigates a slowing economy and shifting international dynamics, its pivot to accommodating diplomacy represents a strategic adaptation to current global challenges. This section will explore the economic, geopolitical and reputational motivations driving this diplomatic shift. Economically, the necessity to integrate more seamlessly into the global market, reduce trade frictions and attract foreign investment is paramount in the context of China's moderating growth. Geopolitically, the need to forge stronger alliances and engage in multilateral cooperation becomes critical as global challenges like climate change demand collective action. Additionally, this shift seeks to remedy the reputational damage caused by the assertive wolf warrior diplomacy, aiming to re-establish China as a responsible global leader committed to fostering international stability and cooperation. This analysis will detail how these factors collectively influence China's approach to reshaping its foreign policy in an increasingly interconnected world.

Economic recovery through diplomatic engagement

China's shift to accommodating diplomacy can be largely attributed to the pressing need to stabilize and revitalize its economy amid various domestic and international challenges. This section explores how economic downturns influenced by the COVID–19 pandemic, the bursting of housing market ‘bubbles’, a decrease in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and the exodus of foreign companies have necessitated a re-evaluation of China's foreign policy approach.

In recent years, Chinese GDP growth was not hindered solely by the impact of the COVID–19 pandemic and the subsequent lockdown measures, as studies show that it had been faltering for some time prior to 2020.23 However, the economic slowdown was starkly highlighted by the COVID–19 pandemic, which disrupted major economic centres and industrial activities. The lockdown measures, while initially successful in controlling the virus's spread, significantly hampered consumer spending and industrial production. China's GDP growth experienced a dramatic slowdown, prompting the need for robust international trade and recovery strategies to counteract the economic fallout.24 The Chinese government, recognizing the domestic economic vulnerability due to these disruptions, saw the urgency of maintaining an open and cooperative international stance to facilitate economic recovery and maintain supply chain continuity.

The Chinese real estate sector, a pivotal engine of economic growth, encountered severe turbulence marked by high-profile financial distress within major companies, including the Evergrande crisis in 2023. This sector's instability revealed broader economic vulnerabilities, considering its significant contribution to GDP and its interconnectedness with various industries such as construction, manufacturing and financial services.25 It is important to note that the actual extent of the damage from the housing sector collapse is not fully transparent, and external observers may not have a complete understanding of its impact. The crisis prompted a re-evaluation of domestic economic policies and highlighted the need for foreign capital and expertise to stabilize and reinvigorate the market. The government's response included regulatory reforms and initiatives aimed at attracting foreign investment to mitigate the risk of a broader economic downturn, which was successful in stimulating the country's economic growth.26

Inflows of FDI into China have decreased sharply, reaching their lowest level in 30 years and signalling a concerning trend for the nation's economic landscape. According to official data from China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange cited by Nikkei, net inflows of FDI totalled only US$33 billion in 2023: a drastic 80 per cent drop from the previous year and less than 10 per cent of the $344 billion peak recorded in 2021.27 This decline reflects a growing wariness among foreign investors, driven partly by China's aggressive diplomatic postures and a tough regulatory environment marked by increased crackdowns on espionage and the impact of US sanctions. Such conditions have led to a perceived exodus of foreign corporations, wary of the uncertainties and escalating diplomatic frictions. To counteract this negative trend and rejuvenate foreign investment, which is crucial for technology transfer, job creation and overall economic growth, China needed to soften its diplomatic approach and create a more inviting investment climate—effectively, by saying ‘goodbye’ to its aggressive wolf warrior diplomatic style. By realigning its international relations with economic objectives, China could restore investor confidence and encourage renewed investment flows.

Diplomatic shifts in response to geopolitical pressures

China's ‘wolf warrior’ diplomacy has had significant geopolitical ramifications that necessitated a strategic re-evaluation. This aggressive approach, while aimed at showcasing China's rising confidence on the world stage, often brought about escalated tensions and diminished cooperation with several key nations, affecting both China's international relations and its strategic objectives.

Assertive diplomacy on China's part led to several notable incidents that exacerbated geopolitical tensions. In the South China Sea, aggressive territorial claims against neighbouring south-east Asian countries heightened regional security concerns.28 The US–China trade war, initiated by the mutual imposition of tariffs, disrupted global economic stability and underscored the contentious nature of China's trade practices. Relations with Australia soured dramatically following calls for an independent COVID–19 investigation, resulting in significant trade restrictions on Australian exports. Technological and security tensions escalated with western nations, particularly over concerns regarding Chinese tech companies and national security, leading to bans and restrictions on firms like the telecommunications company Huawei. Additionally, China's dismissive response to international criticisms of its human rights record in regions such as Xinjiang and Hong Kong further strained diplomatic relations,29 which necessitated a re-evaluation of its diplomatic approach to restore cooperative international relationships and support its global strategic objectives.

China's wolf warrior diplomacy has significantly influenced Italy's decision to withdraw from the BRI. The assertive diplomatic approach, coupled with economic realities, led to heightened scepticism within Italy regarding the benefits of the BRI. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has publicly criticized the BRI, labelling Italy's participation as a ‘big mistake’ due to the lack of economic benefits and describing Italy's 2019 decision to join as an ‘improvised and atrocious act’.30 This sentiment reflects a broader transatlantic convergence on viewing China as a rival, spurred by Beijing's geopolitical manoeuvres including its support for Russia in the latter's conflict with Ukraine, which has further strained relations. Furthermore, Meloni's administration, aligning closely with US perspectives on China, has emphasized a strategic pivot towards reducing Italy's economic dependence on China. This shift is part of a larger trend across European nations, which are increasingly focused on ‘de-risking’ their economies from Chinese influence.31 The convergence of these factors, along with the ongoing reassessment of the BRI amid global debt distress and China's domestic economic challenges, underscores a significant geopolitical shift. Italy's withdrawal not only reflects national concerns over economic sovereignty but also indicates broader European apprehensions about the strategic implications of deepened ties with China under the BRI framework.

Domestic political considerations in China's diplomatic shift

Nationalism plays a critical role in shaping China's foreign policy. The rise in nationalistic sentiment among the Chinese populace has often pushed the government towards adopting a more assertive international stance, which was evident during the peak period of wolf warrior diplomacy.32 This assertive approach served a dual purpose: asserting China's sovereignty and capabilities internationally, and bolstering the government's domestic legitimacy by appealing to the public and political hard-liners who favoured a strong, uncompromising global posture. However, as the negative repercussions of this approach—such as economic sanctions, geopolitical isolation and trade conflicts—became apparent, there was a recalibration. The leadership began to recognize that overly aggressive diplomacy could undermine China's long-term strategic interests, both internationally and at home, where economic stability and growth are paramount to the legitimacy of Chinese communist government.33

The leadership, under President Xi Jinping, has increasingly emphasized the importance of portraying China as a responsible global leader. This vision is reflected in the shift towards more cooperative diplomatic strategies. Xi's directives have increasingly stressed the importance of ‘great power diplomacy with Chinese characteristics’, which aims to balance assertiveness with cooperation.34 This approach is designed to maintain China's sovereignty and respect on the global stage while avoiding the pitfalls of confrontational tactics that could lead to international pushback and hinder China's global ambitions.

The shift in diplomatic style is also a reflection of China's domestic priorities—particularly the need to sustain economic growth and maintain social stability. The Chinese leadership understands that a stable international environment is crucial for domestic prosperity, especially as China faces internal challenges such as economic slowdowns, demographic shifts and regional disparities. Accommodating diplomacy thus serves to create a more favourable global business and political environment, facilitating foreign investments and enhancing trade relationships that are vital for China's ongoing development and modernization efforts. Meanwhile, Xi Jinping's waning domestic support is also a minor factor contributing to the country's diplomatic shift. Missteps in various policy areas—such as awarding himself a third five-year term of office, managing the pandemic, economic policies and interactions with multinational corporations—have eroded Xi's credibility and political influence among the Chinese public and within the CPC. This weakening of his position has opened the door for more moderate policy-makers to reassert themselves in areas previously dominated by Xi's more aggressive strategies.

It is also important to recognize the significant role of western actors, namely the efforts of the administration of President Joseph Biden, in encouraging Chinese counterparts to engage in dialogue at various levels of the policy hierarchy. This diplomatic exchange has not been one-way traffic; western initiatives have played a critical role in fostering and sustaining these dialogues. Despite the challenging context, many in the West have maintained faith in the benefits of dialogue with China, even when China appeared to be retreating from engagement. This perseverance underscores the importance of western diplomacy in the recent shifts in Chinese foreign policy. The efforts to keep communication channels open and to encourage cooperation have been pivotal and should not be understated.

Goodbye, Wolf Warrior: changes made under China's new foreign diplomacy

As China transitions away from its assertive ‘wolf warrior’ diplomacy, a new chapter in its foreign policy is unfolding. This transformation is a response to both the changing international landscape and internal reflections on the long-term impacts of previous aggressive tactics. The new strategy aims to mend frayed relations, enhance China's global standing, and address the complexities of modern geopolitics. The following are some of the changes that have been made under China's new style of foreign diplomacy.

It appears that Xi Jinping himself recognized the drawbacks of wolf warrior diplomacy and initiated the shift, as evidenced by his leadership in convening, in late December 2023, the Central Conference on Work Relating to Foreign Affairs, which was to set a new course for China's diplomatic strategy, as outlined by Xi. The conference, which set forth a new blueprint for China's engagement on the global stage, emphasized the development of a community with a shared future and pivoted towards a more cooperative and inclusive diplomatic approach. This strategic realignment aims to better integrate China into the evolving multipolar world, emphasizing peaceful coexistence and mutual benefit through high-quality global partnerships and the BRI.35 The refreshed approach seeks to bolster China's global standing while maintaining sovereignty and enhancing its role in global governance, aligning foreign policy more closely with national rejuvenation and the long-term goal of establishing China as a modern socialist country. This significant recalibration in China's foreign policy is designed to create a favourable international environment that supports China's broad strategic interests, marking a dramatic shift from China's previous diplomatic approach.

Other examples of change under the new approach include the reassignment of certain outspoken officials (such as Zhao Lijian, see above) to less prominent roles, or a general moderation of the formerly confrontational stance discernible among representatives of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (see above on the contentious statements made by China's ambassador to France). China's responses to these issues signal a strategic pivot to more tempered diplomatic engagements36—not just as a reaction to isolated events, but constituting a substantive re-evaluation of China's foreign policy aimed at reducing international friction and enhancing global cooperation.

In a further move that reflects its evolving diplomatic strategy, China has expanded its visa-free travel programme to include 11 European countries and Malaysia until the end of 2025. Originally launched on 1 December 2023 for a one-year period, the programme was extended in a measure designed to boost tourism and business visits, facilitating higher levels of interaction between Chinese citizens and foreign nationals. Travellers from Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malaysia, the Netherlands, Spain and Switzerland are beneficiaries of this policy, which allows for visa-free stays of up to 15 days under the trial programme. According to a foreign ministry spokesperson, the initiative aims to ‘facilitate the high-quality development of Chinese and foreign personnel exchanges and high-level opening up to the outside world’, signalling a clear shift on China's part towards more open and engaging international relations,37 through increased cultural and economic exchanges.

Policy recommendations for western democracies

As western democracies navigate the complexities of their relationship with China, it is imperative to develop an approach that transcends the simplistic dichotomy of friend or foe. Viewing China solely as an adversary not only fuels antagonism but also blinds policy-makers to opportunities for constructive engagement. Instead, a more sophisticated strategy is required—one that acknowledges the multifaceted nature of international relations in the twenty-first century. This section outlines policy prescriptions designed to foster a more balanced and constructive engagement with China. By avoiding the trap of seeing China exclusively as an adversary, western nations can lay the groundwork for more effective diplomacy that capitalizes on mutual interests and mitigates conflicts. Trust-building measures, concrete cooperation in key sectors, and enhanced cultural and educational exchanges are crucial components of this strategy. These recommendations are not just practical steps but are essential for forging a future where global stability and shared prosperity are achievable goals.

Avoiding the ‘foe’ trap

Western democracies must move beyond the binary perspective of viewing China solely as a foe. This reductionist view not only hampers diplomatic efforts but also risks entrenching adversarial relationships that could escalate into conflict. Instead, it is crucial to recognize the complexity of China as both a competitor and a partner. During Xi Jinping's recent tour of Europe, countries such as France articulated a stance that acknowledged China's geopolitical ambitions while stressing the economic risks of over-reliance on Chinese markets.38 This dual approach—highlighting cooperation opportunities while addressing contentious issues—serves as a potential model that is pragmatic for western democracies to emulate. It allows for the cultivation of diplomatic relationships that are resilient and adaptable. For instance, engaging China on global issues such as climate change, where cooperation is indispensable, does not preclude taking a firm stand on issues like human rights abuses in Xinjiang. This balanced strategy can also mitigate the risk of economic over-dependence on China by diversifying supply chains and investing in strategic industries domestically and with other global partners. Incorporating this balanced perspective requires a fundamental shift in both rhetoric and policy. It involves training diplomats and policy-makers to think beyond binary paradigms and equipping them with the tools to engage in complex, multifaceted diplomacy. Educational institutions and think tanks can play a pivotal role in fostering this mindset by promoting research and dialogue that explores the dynamics of Sino-western relations.

Trust-building measures

Trust-building is essential for fostering a cooperative international environment. Without trust, even the most well-intentioned diplomatic efforts can quickly unravel, leading to increased suspicion and potential conflict. Trust acts as the bedrock upon which sustainable international relations are built, enabling nations to work together on shared goals while managing their differences. As Benjamin Barton has underscored, trust is a critical component in international relations, and without it, cooperative endeavours are likely to falter.39 Western democracies can undertake specific measures to bridge the trust gap with China. Top-down approaches are particularly effective in signalling serious commitment and fostering high-level cooperation. High-level strategic dialogues that focus on mutual interests such as climate change, global health, and economic stability can pave the way for deeper collaboration. For instance, reinstating annual bilateral summits between China and western powers can serve as a platform for discussing critical issues, setting agendas and evaluating progress. These summits could be complemented by the creation of joint task forces dedicated to pressing global challenges, thereby institutionalizing cooperation and ensuring sustained engagement. An illustrative example of this approach is the US–China Strategic and Economic Dialogue, which ran from 2009 to 2017 and which brought together senior officials from both countries to discuss economic policies, security concerns and global governance. Although it faced challenges, this dialogue provided a valuable framework for addressing bilateral and global issues, demonstrating the potential of high-level engagement to build trust and foster cooperation.40

However, top-down approaches alone are insufficient. Bottom-up initiatives are equally vital in building grassroots understanding and trust. These initiatives can have a profound impact by fostering interpersonal connections and cultural empathy, which are essential for overcoming stereotypes and misconceptions. Academic collaborations, joint research projects and cultural exchanges can create a robust foundation for long-term cooperation. Programmes like the EU–China High Level People-to-People Dialogue, which facilitates student and faculty exchanges, have proven effective in creating enduring personal and professional relationships that transcend political tensions.41 Moreover, cultural exchanges such as the Confucius Institutes and reciprocal programmes like the British Council's initiatives in China can play a crucial role in fostering mutual understanding.42 These programmes enable people-to-people diplomacy, allowing citizens to experience each other's cultures, values and perspectives at first hand. Such interactions can demystify foreign cultures, reduce prejudice and build understanding of global issues. Another promising avenue for trust-building is through collaborative research on global challenges. Joint initiatives in scientific research, technology development and innovation can create shared interests and mutual benefits. For instance, collaborative research on renewable energy technologies can address both environmental sustainability and economic growth, providing a common ground for cooperation.

Conclusion

This policy paper has examined the pivotal shift in China's diplomatic strategy from the assertive ‘wolf warrior’ diplomacy to a more accommodating and cooperative approach, a change characterized by renewed efforts to engage positively on the global stage. Through detailed analysis of policy adjustments, leadership directives and strategic re-evaluations, it becomes evident that this transition is driven by China's need to adapt to global economic pressures, geopolitical challenges and the imperative to maintain government legitimacy. The extension of visa-free travel to travellers in several European countries as well as Malaysia, Australia and New Zealand, the restructuring of diplomatic personnel and the emphasis on creating a community with a shared future highlight China's change to more accommodating diplomatic style.

China's transition towards an accommodating diplomacy represents a strategic evolution aimed at fostering global partnerships and enhancing its role on the world stage. To further develop this approach, China should continue to enhance its public diplomacy through cultural exchanges, educational outreach and tourism, all of which can promote mutual understanding and soften its international image. Strengthening participation in international organizations and multilateral treaties would further demonstrate China's commitment to global governance. This dual strategy helps to align China's internal growth with external peace and cooperation, essential for its long-term development plans. Domestically, China faces the challenge of balancing nationalist sentiments with the pragmatic necessities of international diplomacy. Education on global interdependence is crucial in moderating nationalistic extremes, illustrating the benefits derived from a stable, cooperative international environment. Transparent communication about the goals and outcomes of foreign policies will also be key in aligning public perception with the realities of global interdependency. This approach will help maintain public support while ensuring that national strategies reflect both domestic aspirations and global responsibilities.

In the delicate dance of international diplomacy, western democracies stand at a critical juncture with China. If Donald Trump were to win the 2024 presidential election in the United States, the need for western democracies to adopt a balanced approach toward China would become even more critical. Trump's confrontational stance could reignite tensions, making it vital that western governments avoid the binary view of China solely as a foe. The isolationist forces could potentially undermine the delicate process of engagement that has been years in the making and is only now starting to show positive results. To transcend the binary view of China as merely a foe is to embrace the complexity of a relationship rich with both challenges and opportunities. This transformation demands a sophisticated strategy that balances vigilance with engagement, and competition with collaboration.

By recognizing China as both a competitor and a partner, western nations can foster a more resilient and adaptive diplomatic framework. Trust-building lies at the heart of this endeavour. Without it, the scaffolding of international cooperation collapses into suspicion and discord. High-level strategic dialogues signal a commitment to mutual interests, while grassroots initiatives such as academic and cultural exchanges cultivate a deeper, more enduring trust. These dual approaches are not just tactical but essential for crafting a future where cooperation supersedes conflict. The balanced stance recently articulated by European leaders offers a pragmatic blueprint. It demonstrates that it is possible to engage with China constructively while safeguarding one's own strategic interests. Emphasizing trust-building measures, such as high-level dialogues and grassroots exchanges, would be essential to maintain stability and open communication. Embracing this model could pave the way for a more stable, prosperous and harmonious global order, where diplomacy triumphs over simplistic antagonism.