US-China Rivalry and the Global Governance Trilemma: Three Scenarios for World Order

Abstract

We examine the consequences of US-China rivalry for future world order in light of the global governance trilemma. The trilemma captures persistent trade-offs between three dimensions of global governance: authority, breadth, and universality. The contemporary US-China rivalry exacerbates the global governance trilemma, making these trade-offs increasingly acute. Drawing on hegemonic order theories, we argue that the trilemma was attenuated in the post-Cold War period owing to a hegemonic alignment of power and purpose that enabled the emergence of a relatively universal, broad, and authoritative system of global governance. By putting an end to this hegemonic moment, the US-China rivalry has led to the revenge of the global governance trilemma. Moving beyond the idea of a shift from rules to power, we use the logic of the trilemma to identify three ideal-typical scenarios for the coming world order: a world of clubs, a world of deals, and a world of thin governance.